- Imagine that you can not go to your business or to visit family, because all kinds of cars and tankers have stopped
- Imagine that you can not cook your food or heat your home, the lack of any kind of thermal energy types
- Imagine that you Atjd food nor medicine nor dress to buy, even if you have enough money, because they do not exist
- Imagine that you Atjd water in your home to Allcherb and Aellatha and Allgusal, because the pumps have stopped
- A perception that the city streets have been filled with garbage, because all types of mechanisms have stopped
- Imagine that you will not hear any news from anywhere in the world, because all television and radio stations have been closed
- And the perception of many, many of the ills of the near future, and you will not be able to carry on a normal life!
What is your opinion?
This has led the use of oil in the last short period of time to change the global economy and social and political structures as well as the lifestyles of the people are very much larger than has led to the use of any other substance in the world. But the world's oil resources are limited, and beginning to reach the peak of global oil production, as well as stainless global oil reserves to offset the decline became close and clearly visible.
Oil and since the beginning of the last century has become an integral part of the agricultural industry and life as well as in human life engineering widely. With a oil derivatives such as gas, kerosene, fuel oil and gasoline going more than 600 million cars in the world. Although the limited oil resources we consume oil pace Taazemih proportional. What are those calamities and crises that lie ahead in the future of the post-oil and caused him, and how some of the basic aspects will be for human life at that time?
He wrote in detail a little so far about the misfortunes of the post-oil, and it seems that some people think that this will not happen and that the oil will remain so forever, at least not in their time. However, most governments and human societies and is widely will face a huge crisis at the advent of the near time. And the beginning of a post-oil stainless decline is coming because one fact makes this issue very clear. The world currently uses about 27 billion barrels of oil a year, but we find that the findings in the new global fields less than 6 billion barrels of oil per year (ie about 21 billion barrels of oil consumed annually from the accumulated global stock). The world is also coming to the inevitable loss of the oil industry, but what at that?
The fact that world oil production will increase up to the great climax and then begins to decrease non-debatable. If the most optimistic in this respect, the views are correct and that global production will be up to the great climax after a period slightly longer than currently expected by most specialists, this will exacerbate the misfortunes because it means that the beginning of the global production drop of oil will occur when the number of the world's population may swell more than in the case of landing productive if started early. And then the conditioning process of human life without oil will become more difficult.
The search for the types of disasters that will be resolved in the post-oil phase leads to the study of a large number of important aspects of the world. Will have to drop the global production of oil has many ramifications and effects of global economies will change the social structures as well as the private life of the man from New methods. Researchers have identified two things more important in this issue are:
- Global production drop of oil to countries that support its economy and fully on the impact of oil.
- The impact of the global production drop of oil on the global agricultural production, leading to insufficient agricultural products to feed the population.
It is well known that some countries has become a follower and its economy fully to produce the oil, what will happen in the economy and social structure of the buildings and completely on the basis of the oil wealth of non-renewal or restoration after the force? Thus would be circumstances Gulf states such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Oman. As for Iran and Venezuela wielding a modest agricultural potential rather not rely entirely on oil production, both the two Thslan the most rare pieces (foreign currency) through the oil sold. Also, Libya, Brunei and fully dependent on the oil produced.
Oil wealth has brought about significant changes in these countries. These changes were faster and deeper than any changes have taken place in any country in the world in any time in history. In Saudi Arabia, the process of transfer of the Bedouin community to a rich and orderly society in less than 60 years occurred. This applies to a large extent on all States that have become newly oil-rich end. All the peoples of these countries have been under development by the access to the oil wealth. There was no government program for the development of society, and there was only some medical sites is very limited, and the road infrastructure is weak as well as the media and public and private transportation, and electric power was almost negligible.
Oil money has brought with it huge social and economic changes to these countries. In addition to the many things it has launched various social programs, which have all been designed to serve and assist the citizens of high life standards. These programs have included the provision of food aid free or cheap medical aid. In countries dominated by desertification, the import of food and provided aid to the population was changed Sara former reality in which the material is limited food. But what are the results that have been obtained?
Contrary to the general notion that increasing economic prosperity leads to low birth and low degree of population growth rate, a number of studies have shown that economic development can lead to stimulate population growth. The more the outlook better for a person whenever allowed to increase the number of members of his family, and the means to improve health care to provide the highest rate of survival and mortality decline. Lost population growth rate in the Gulf states and Libya also the world average, which is equivalent to 1.6% rose. For example, the annual increase, as well as the time required for the doubling of the population in Saudi Arabia, Libya 4.1% rate (doubling of the population every 17 years is happening), Kuwait 6% (doubling every 11.6 years), Qatar 6.5% (doubling every 10.7 years), the United Arab Emirates 7.3 % (every 9.6 years) doubled. As a result of this increase in the rate of increase, about half of the population in the Arab world under the age of 15 years. This bodes constantly this rise in rates of population growth or even a height of what it is now through the next two decades (Fernea 1998).
Although the Gulf states currently have most of the world's oil, they will be exposed to a decline in oil production over time. The increase in oil prices tempered the severity of the economic effects of this decline in productivity, but it is inevitable that oil will go down access to become important in the future while continuing to drain the oil fields. Economic Prosperity and the accompanying happy days have occurred in the oil-rich countries and continues even now will end. The increase in annual oil income began to become less than in previous years and the number of people constantly on the rise. In the case of the Saudi Arabian Kingdom, which has the largest oil reserves in the world practically Government has announced the fiscal deficit and cut short the various social programs and subsidies.
The Saudis know the limited oil resources and say: My father rode the camel, I drive a car, my son riding a jet plane and his son will ride the camel. Without some other economic rules (non-oil), which sees any of them yet, the enormous changes will impose on the lifestyles of man is believed that it will hit the population size as well. It will not be easy.
Kuwait, which covers an area of less than 7 thousand square miles, has more oil than the United States of America, which has an area of 3.5 million square miles. In Kuwait, there are no tax income housing, and other benefits donated health care for free, and give the state each pair (young) during their marriage more than US $ 7,000. Kuwait sits on its own aircraft and roads where air Bioing 747 planes take off regularly from New York and London to Kuwait. The government has a playground for the girl glide on the ice Olympic-sized, and invested a significant amount of money abroad and has become now earn money from those investments (including gas stations Series) more than you get from the direct export of oil. Kuwaitis are hoping that when the oil is draining their income harvested from these investments will continue to support the Kuwaiti lifestyle. However, the gas stations abroad have Atjna big profits in the future and that the increase in population, which is currently doubling every 11.6 years rate may outweigh the income from foreign investments growth rate. Kuwait not have an agricultural base that practically all of its factories based on an oil based (petrochemical). Kuwait has become a welfare state-backed oil-more than any other Gulf state.
As for Venezuela, which owns more than half of the oil reserves in South America, It has also backed by a number of oil profits for social programs. But with a review of the events we see that in 1989, when the oil income falter slightly government changed dispensing free methods. There has been a result of many disorders and social problems (high prices, unrest, arrests, etc.). In 1996, due to the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, the government asked for a loan of US $ 2.5 billion from the global financial dependence.
The profits of oil in Venezuela was unable to keep pace with population growth, as well as the high cost of all social services resulting from it, which previously identified during the years of oil-rich access. Production of oil increased and increased profits, but the population growth overcame the oil economies. It is expected that the Venezuelan oil income reaches its peak during these years. And the proportion of the population increase equivalent to 3.5% per annum. This means that the population will double in 20 years, but will fall in oil production by doubling the number of people coming.
And most importantly in this topic is the date on which the world's oil production will reach a peak and then begin to decline stainless retreat or amendment. And then will shrink and shorten all the programs of social and economic services. According to the majority of recent studies, the history of the peak of global oil production between 2003 and 2020 is going to happen was the International Energy Agency in 1998 declared that the peak in global oil production will occur between 2010 and 2020. This was announced that a recent study that the history of reach peak production of oil in countries that depend on it basically is estimated as follows (Duncan & Youngquist 1998): Kuwait 2018, Amman, 2002, Syria in 1999, the United Arab Emirates in 2017, Yemen 2002, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2011, Venezuela in 2005, Qatar, Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Brunei exceeded now the peak of production. The kindness of production decline in Qatar and the presence of huge gas deposits that are currently being developed. The manifestations of anxiety seemed clear in Bahrain and Iran after the fall in oil income effect on the levels of snakes in these two countries. Iran has surpassed the peak of production in 1973. With the current increase in the number of the population that far outweigh supported by low oil income potential with time, Iran will be in a few years-rich Gulf state's oil, but poorer than it was 20 years earlier. Valtzaid population leads to a weakening of the effectiveness of possible oil wealth of nations.
It was expected that Iraq reaches peak production in 2011, but this has been postponed as a result of pressure from the US, British and harassment to him. But it is clear that the right to life of harm and still attached to the Iraqi citizens as a result of falling oil income, where they are lacking the most basic foundations of life, especially food and medicine, after the level of an individual's life from the highest levels in the world. So how Iraq will be able to support his countrymen when left has little oil or oil when it depletes its entirety? Iraqi Oil achieves 99% of national income to cut rare (foreign currency), however they are now They can not even provide the necessary nutrients for the citizens. Will the rest of the world will cover the need of the Iraqi people and forever, when Iraq becomes free of oil? Or that countries which usually export food will have a surplus of grain for sale then? The effect of the depletion of the global oil and gas on the overall global production of food can not be ignored. And that this impact will not be limited to oil-rich countries that depend on it, but it would apply to the whole world, and therefore, this has the effect of vital importance and even fatal in the future. The description (Bartlett 1978) this topic succinctly, saying that modern agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food.
I've created the following three elements: mechanization, petrochemicals and genetic engineering (genetics) Green Revolution, where he led to a dramatic increase in agricultural products during the last century. And two of these three elements (mechanization and petrochemicals) dependent on oil and natural gas. Valmknna given the huge potential in the use of large tracts of land in agriculture could not be compensated by horses or Suaha.valjrarat agricultural engines and combine harvesters and others, all of which rely on petroleum products (gasoline and diesel fuel, oils and grease), which will stop the oil runs out. Trucks and buses, planes and Sbarat public and private transportation and other also will stop. There will not be any possibility to use a remote land, or that you need to water from other regions or from deep wells species. Vamadkhat pumping water transport will also stop. The turbines, which will be powered by hydrocarbon (gas, kerosene and fuel oil) for power generation depends. It will all factories and plants mechanized stop, including custom clothing, food, medical supplies and other also. It will also depend on the example only and not limited to all trucks carrying food and medicines to the cities and remote areas and also those for the transfer of waste, dirt and clean cities, all of which rely on petroleum products. Currently, for example, is also based in the United States only 2% of their workers to produce all the necessary nutrients for the Americans, at a time when America constitute the largest exporter of wheat in the world. And that all of this is made possible by oil and natural gas.
To most people a fundamental relationship oil and natural gas as an energy source for heating homes and cooking and the use of cars. And oil and natural gas a very important role in the far beyond their role in the operation of engines and agricultural machinery agriculture. This is exemplified in that long chain of manufactured goods from oil and gas to fertilize the land, pesticides and drugs to treat diseases of agricultural and adjust the productivity and quality of products. And fertilizer most commonly used is the manufacturer of ammonia compounds from natural gas. The lack of these materials will lead to a significant decline in agricultural productivity as well as to the poor in quality across the world. This topic has been summarized (Fleay1995) in the following form: the bulk of the world's population depends on food produced from high-yield crops and check using the fuel. The world can afford to feed 3 billion people only without these productivity (note that the number of the world's population today is equivalent to 6.5 billion people), and oil is the key ..... and leading exporters of grain in the world are: United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and Argentina - and adopt all of these countries in the cultivation and tremendously on petroleum products.
Humanity has known hunger and know that it exists currently. And now dominates the world in opposing Nzaatan: The first is that the population is increasing globally amazing - the pace up a quarter of a million a day, and based humanitarian and increase its dependence on oil and natural gas in order to produce food. And second to end the depletion of oil and natural gas has become clearly visible. Today we Aenaih only in ghost land, but in the ghost of the century - the last century, which was the main part of the discovery of oil and gas reservoirs. This material, which was formed during more than half a billion a year (500 million years) in the earth's crust consume very quickly in less than 200 years. The question now is what are the alternatives?
Oil alternatives can be classified into renewable sources and sources of non-renewable. Certainly, renewable sources that should cover the gap that it drives the decline in oil and gas production. The sources of non-renewable They also will expire at the post-oil, and these include coal, nuclear energy, oil sands, oil Ghadhari (which has not been used so far), geothermal energy and electric power generated hydraulically. Here should be noted that all the dams are filled with silt will someday, and all sites showed production of electrical energy using groundwater landing some heat in varying degrees less productivity and more. And long-term source of renewable electric power generated is not hydraulically and electric power generated by geothermal will not stay. The renewable sources they include: wind, solar, biomass, tidal, converting thermal energy of the oceans may well be volcanic molten which is still not possible to get it yet.
If Magmana test the proposed alternatives to oil, it will show us the essential facts. First, the use of oil and gas as a source for the production of large numbers of items worth tens of thousands of petrochemical materials, including fertilizer and pesticides important insects, we will find that all the alternatives were not competitive. Secondly, the energy is reasonable and the meaning which can perform the work required energy. General and understood that kind of energy types such as electricity can make up another type, such as gasoline. However, it is clear that this concept is not accurate because the gallons of gasoline has the equivalent energy to electrical energy in the battery usually weighing one ton. And the physical capability to store electricity can not be comparable to the possibility of appropriate gasoline storage, as five gallons of gasoline can be carried in case you need them hundreds of miles to remote areas to be used in the same car. And the electrical equivalent of these five gallons of gasoline equivalent may range electric batteries weigh several tons. The inability to easily replace the fuel used in places is a major problem. And yet does not have any fuel or energy to run a large or medium agricultural mechanism, not even a small engine except gasoline and fuel oil. Oil Bkablath multiple and appropriate storage and transportation uses in and to the need for sites (engines of all sizes, Nafi in all weather conditions, removable storage for long periods in remote areas) to Aamathl any other source of energy.
Coming sometimes extracted from plants oil as a source and Goody to replace oil everywhere, but the wide studies carried out by Giampietro and others (1997) and reached the following: The production of biofuels in large quantities is not a substitute current oil uses, so that it does not constitute an idea that can advise them to compensate for reasonable amounts of oil . The facts of experience ethanol is an example.
Valaithanol Ethanol alcoholic substance extracted from plants (mostly corn) are currently used, especially in the form of (Gasohol) a mixture of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline. Due to the limits of what they use (often a federal mandate in specific places and specific times) has been commonly thought that ethanol acceptable partially solve the problem of fuel and machinery.